Gaziantep FK 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 38%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Rizespor meet at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gaziantep FK's home record at Gaziantep Stadyumu: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rizespor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rizespor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rizespor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 54% | Rizespor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / defence 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.028 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.352. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Gaziantep FK games / 37 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 38% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 33%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 38% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.56 / Rizespor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / def 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.028 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Rizespor xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 38% chance of winning, Rizespor a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.98x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.03x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.47
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Rizespor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.44 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 21L across 37 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 0.97 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 10W 7D 1L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 4D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.19 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 21L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Rizespor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.06 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rizespor 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Rizespor?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 61%, Rizespor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gaziantep FK) and 67% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Gaziantep FK's games and 56% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Rizespor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Rizespor 2-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.03 / defence 1.33, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 38% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 33%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Rizespor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.16 PPG, Rizespor 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.