Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.93x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.91
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.69
0.92
Rizespor xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
32.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.92 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.