🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.65 xG and Konyaspor 1.40 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 40% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 29%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights