🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Kayserispor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Kayserispor 1-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.75 xG and Kayserispor 0.71 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.92 / defence 0.72 against Kayserispor attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 14%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 56%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Kayserispor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.25 PPG, Kayserispor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights