🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 0.80 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gaziantep FK, 4 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gaziantep FK 59% and Kasımpaşa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Kasımpaşa 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.958 / defence 1.166 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.827 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.318. Data: 56 Gaziantep FK games / 56 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights