Gaziantep FK 2-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Kasımpaşa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 36% | Kasımpaşa 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.60 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.021 / defence 0.899 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.657 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.133. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Gaziantep FK games / 11 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 15%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 40% | Kasımpaşa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.60 / Kasımpaşa 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.021 / def 0.899 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.657 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Kasımpaşa xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 60% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.05
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.27
0.67
Kasımpaşa xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
3%
32.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.67 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.20 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gaziantep FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 40%, Kasımpaşa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Gaziantep FK and 40% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 40% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.60 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.67 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.66 / defence 1.29, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 60% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 15%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 36%, Kasımpaşa 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.