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Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Kasımpaşa 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights