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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa finished level at 2-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 37% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 36%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.21 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights