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Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Hatayspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.95 xG and Hatayspor 0.74 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 0.70 against Hatayspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 65% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 13%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Hatayspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Hatayspor's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.26 PPG, Hatayspor 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights