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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gaziantep FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 0-4 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.44 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.20 / defence 1.07 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.03 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 31% | Fenerbahçe 38%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights