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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gaziantep FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 1-3 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.90 / defence 0.75 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 44%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights