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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, as Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.89 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.81 / defence 1.47, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 51% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights