🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK finished level at 0-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.51 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 0.66 against Bodrum FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 66% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 9%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Bodrum FK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights