Gaziantep FK 0-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Gaziantep FK take on Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 0.92 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Beşiktaş attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.816 / away 1.145. Data: 1 Gaziantep FK games / 1 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 38% | Beşiktaş 36%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Beşiktaş 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 33% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 38% | Beşiktaş 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Gaziantep FK 0.92 / Beşiktaş 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Beşiktaş attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.816 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 26% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.85x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.90
38%
2.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.12 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Gaziantep FK's scoring rate against Beşiktaş's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 0%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Gaziantep FK or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 3-0 on 17 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 0% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 100% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 0.92 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Beşiktaş attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 38% | Beşiktaş 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 100%, Beşiktaş 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.