🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Antalyaspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Antalyaspor 3-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.41 xG and Antalyaspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Antalyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 26%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 59%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.34 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights