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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3-0 at Rams Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.87 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.44 / defence 0.91 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 19%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 65%, Kasımpaşa 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galatasaray's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Galatasaray (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights