Galatasaray 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NEF Stadyumu plays host to Galatasaray versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NEF Stadyumu, Galatasaray have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Galatasaray are significantly better at NEF Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 3W 0D 3L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Galatasaray, 1.40 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Galatasaray 58% and Fenerbahçe 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 58% | Fenerbahçe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.34 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.957 / defence 0.934 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.886 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.116. Data: 12 Galatasaray games / 12 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 46% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 26%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 3.85. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 40% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 46% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Galatasaray 1.34 / Fenerbahçe 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.957 / def 0.934 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.886 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fenerbahçe xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 46% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (0.96) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (0.89x) against Galatasaray's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.59
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.26
0.92
Fenerbahçe xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.92 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 6W 3D 3L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.67 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Galatasaray are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fenerbahçe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Galatasaray are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.40 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 0-3 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Galatasaray
3
Draws
3
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 4, Fenerbahçe have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 40%, Fenerbahçe 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Galatasaray) and 60% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Galatasaray's recent matches and 60% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Galatasaray's recent games and 60% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fenerbahçe defy the odds to beat Galatasaray 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Galatasaray 1-2 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.34 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.92 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 46% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 26%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 58%, Fenerbahçe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.75 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.