Galatasaray 3-3 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Galatasaray face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NEF Stadyumu plays host to Galatasaray versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Galatasaray's home record at NEF Stadyumu: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Galatasaray's favour (2.70 vs 1.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Galatasaray lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Galatasaray winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 58% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.86 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.259 / defence 0.702 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.235 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.349. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Galatasaray's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Galatasaray games / 66 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 53% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.17. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 53% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Galatasaray 1.86 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.259 / def 0.702 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.235 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Fatih Karagümrük xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray 3 - 3 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 53% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Galatasaray 2W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.26) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.24x) against Galatasaray's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.37
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
3.03
1.17
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
27.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.17 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 36W 13D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 26W 19D 21L from 66 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.47 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.12 PPG from 33 outings (22W 4D 7L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 11W 9D 13L from 33 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.62 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 36W 13D 17L in their last 66 games (1.83 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 26W 19D 21L in their last 66 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.12 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 64%, Fatih Karagümrük 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Galatasaray and 64% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Galatasaray's games and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Galatasaray's matches and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 3-3 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.86 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.17 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.26 / defence 0.70 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 53% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 58%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.83 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.