Galatasaray 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NEF Stadyumu plays host to Galatasaray versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Galatasaray's home record at NEF Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fatih Karagümrük are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Galatasaray lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 63% versus Fatih Karagümrük 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.85 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.001 / defence 1.196 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.696 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.268. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Galatasaray's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Galatasaray games / 30 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 56% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 80% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 56% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Galatasaray 1.85 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.001 / def 1.196 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.696 / def 1.493 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray 2 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 56% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.00) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.70x) against Galatasaray's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.33
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.90
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
3%
29.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.06 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 12W 7D 11L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.43 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.20 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.60 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Galatasaray and 67% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Galatasaray's games and 47% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Galatasaray's matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Galatasaray and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.85 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.49, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 56% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.27 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.