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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Antalyaspor 4-2 at Rams Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.14 xG and Antalyaspor 0.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.48 / defence 0.77 against Antalyaspor attack 0.67 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 71% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 6%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 68%, Antalyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galatasaray's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights