🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alanyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Alanyaspor 3-1 at Rams Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 2.13 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.59 / defence 0.84 against Alanyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 60% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 14%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 66%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galatasaray's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights