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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Göztepe take on Trabzonspor.

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Full Analysis

Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Göztepe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's home record at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.

Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Göztepe, 2.10 for Trabzonspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Trabzonspor 2W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Göztepe — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Trabzonspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Trabzonspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.889 / defence 0.607 | Trabzonspor attack 1.198 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.321. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.607 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Göztepe games / 50 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 37% | Trabzonspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Trabzonspor 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.

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