Göztepe 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Göztepe take on Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's home record at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Göztepe, 2.10 for Trabzonspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Trabzonspor 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Trabzonspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Trabzonspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.889 / defence 0.607 | Trabzonspor attack 1.198 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.321. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.607 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Göztepe games / 50 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 37% | Trabzonspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Trabzonspor 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 37% | Trabzonspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Göztepe 1.17 / Trabzonspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.889 / def 0.607 | Trabzonspor attack 1.198 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Trabzonspor xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Göztepe 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 37% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Göztepe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.89) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.20x) against Göztepe's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.73
37%
2.68
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.13
0.96
Trabzonspor xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.96 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 16D 14L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.64 PPG from 50 outings (22W 16D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Göztepe against 1.64 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 13W 9D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.66 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 20W 16D 14L in their last 50 games (1.52 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 22W 16D 12L in their last 50 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.00 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 46%, Trabzonspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Göztepe) and 46% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 38%; Trabzonspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Göztepe's recent matches and 54% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Göztepe's recent games and 46% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Göztepe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Göztepe 1-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.89 / defence 0.61 against Trabzonspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 37% | Trabzonspor 26%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Trabzonspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.52 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.