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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Göztepe take on Samsunspor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 17 as Göztepe welcome Samsunspor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.70 PPG, Samsunspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Göztepe, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Göztepe in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Samsunspor in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Samsunspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.15 xG and Samsunspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.888 / defence 0.712 | Samsunspor attack 1.211 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.303. Samsunspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Göztepe games / 52 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 32% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Samsunspor 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Samsunspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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