Göztepe vs Samsunspor – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Samsunspor finished level at 2-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 52% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Samsunspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights