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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.26 xG and Rizespor 0.83 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.94 / defence 0.67 against Rizespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 43% | Draw 37% | Rizespor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 45%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.55 PPG, Rizespor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights