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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Göztepe at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Rizespor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Göztepe welcome Rizespor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Göztepe have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 2, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with Göztepe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Göztepe in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Rizespor in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 53% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 45% | Rizespor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.26 xG and Rizespor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.939 / defence 0.667 | Rizespor attack 0.958 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.297. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.667 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Göztepe games / 53 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 37% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Rizespor 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 30% | Rizespor 80%.

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