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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, as Göztepe and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Konyaspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 36%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 53%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights