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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Hatayspor finished level at 1-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.67 xG and Hatayspor 1.03 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.50, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 72% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 12%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 53%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Hatayspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights