🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.56 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.69 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.10 / defence 0.67 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 56% | Draw 30% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 30%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights