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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Gaziantep FK finished level at 1-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.92 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Gaziantep FK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.41 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights