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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Göztepe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Göztepe 1-3 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.00 xG and Galatasaray 1.18 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Galatasaray attack 1.24 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 28% | Draw 35% | Galatasaray 37%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Galatasaray 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Galatasaray's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights