Göztepe 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Göztepe welcome Fenerbahçe to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 62% and Fenerbahçe 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Fenerbahçe 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 0.80 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.583 / defence 1.229 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.991 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.097. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.583 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Göztepe games / 13 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 21% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 48%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Fenerbahçe 2.08. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 17% | Fenerbahçe 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 21% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Göztepe 0.80 / Fenerbahçe 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.583 / def 1.229 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.991 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fenerbahçe xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Göztepe 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 21% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Göztepe and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.58) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
21%
4.68
30%
3.30
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.14
1.34
Fenerbahçe xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.82
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.8 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.34 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe's recent record stands at 2W 4D 7L from 13 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 4L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Göztepe heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.50 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Göztepe's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Göztepe
4
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 17%, Fenerbahçe 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Göztepe) and 67% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 83% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Göztepe's recent matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Göztepe's recent games and 67% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 14, as Göztepe and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 0.80 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.58 / defence 1.23 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 21% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 48%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Fenerbahçe 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.