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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.09 / defence 0.70 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.67 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 64% | Draw 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 32%, Fatih Karagümrük 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights