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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beşiktaş.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Beşiktaş 3-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.16 xG and Beşiktaş 0.94 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Beşiktaş attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 39% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 49%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.46 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights