🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Göztepe and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 0.72, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 52%, Beşiktaş 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.34 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights