Göztepe 2-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 36%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir (all games): 0W 0D 3L across 3 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Göztepe's 0.67 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 67% versus Başakşehir 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 33% | Başakşehir 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.00 xG and Başakşehir 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.763 / defence 1.165 | Başakşehir attack 0.853 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.054. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Göztepe games / 3 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 33% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 36%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (0.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 67% | Başakşehir 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 33% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Göztepe 1.00 / Başakşehir 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.763 / def 1.165 | Başakşehir attack 0.853 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Başakşehir xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Başakşehir kick off?
Göztepe vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Başakşehir?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Göztepe vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Başakşehir part of?
Göztepe vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 33% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Göztepe and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Başakşehir in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.76x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.85x) against Göztepe's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.17
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.04
1.05
Başakşehir xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.05 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-1 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
0
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Başakşehir?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Başakşehir have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Başakşehir?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 67%, Başakşehir 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Göztepe and 33% for Başakşehir.
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Göztepe's recent matches and 33% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Göztepe's recent games and 33% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Göztepe defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.00 xG and Başakşehir 1.05 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Başakşehir attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 33% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 36%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 33%, Başakşehir 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 0.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Göztepe scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.