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Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Başakşehir 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.54 xG and Başakşehir 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.09 / defence 0.72 against Başakşehir attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 48% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Başakşehir's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.48 PPG, Başakşehir 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights