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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.33 xG and Antalyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 43% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 23%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 47%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.48 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights