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Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 3.00 xG and Antalyaspor 0.75 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.44 / defence 0.80 against Antalyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 81% | Draw 14% | Antalyaspor 5%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 67%, Antalyaspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights