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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe and Alanyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.88 / defence 0.67 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 42% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.51 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights