Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor – Match Report

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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.85 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 62%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights