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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe and Rizespor finished level at 2-2 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.98 xG and Rizespor 1.13 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.34 / defence 0.88 against Rizespor attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights