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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Rizespor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 3-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Rizespor attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 63% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights