Fenerbahçe 3-3 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ümraniyespor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 8 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.85 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.011 / defence 0.870 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.376. Data: 38 Fenerbahçe games / 0 Ümraniyespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Ümraniyespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.85 / Ümraniyespor 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.011 / def 0.870 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ümraniyespor xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 3 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 56% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.85x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.07
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.86
1.02
Ümraniyespor xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.02 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Pre-Season
Ümraniyespor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2023, when Ümraniyespor 1-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Ümraniyespor finished level at 3-3 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.85 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.02 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ümraniyespor outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 56% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 20%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.