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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 4-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.04 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Konyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights