Fenerbahçe 4-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Hatayspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Fenerbahçe's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Hatayspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Hatayspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 56% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG and Hatayspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.309 / defence 0.939 | Hatayspor attack 0.717 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.416. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Fenerbahçe games / 52 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Hatayspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Hatayspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.18 / Hatayspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.309 / def 0.939 | Hatayspor attack 0.717 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hatayspor xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.72x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.89
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.13
0.95
Hatayspor xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
59.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.95 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 52 games, going 30W 12D 10L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 52 outings (19W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 16W 6D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (7W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 30W 12D 10L in their last 52 games (1.96 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 19W 11D 22L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Hatayspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.08 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 58%, Hatayspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fenerbahçe) and 50% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hatayspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 42% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 50% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 4-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG and Hatayspor 0.95 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.31 / defence 0.94 against Hatayspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 15%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 56%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.