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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray finished level at 1-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG and Galatasaray 1.52 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.38 / defence 0.95 against Galatasaray attack 1.17 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 30% | Draw 29% | Galatasaray 41%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 69%, Galatasaray 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Galatasaray's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 2.35 PPG, Galatasaray 2.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights