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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Göztepe 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Göztepe 3-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.42 xG and Göztepe 1.06 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Göztepe outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 1.02 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 66% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Göztepe 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Göztepe's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights