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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.01 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 38%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights