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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Beşiktaş 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.75 xG and Beşiktaş 1.57 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.46 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 1.33 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights